The Republican Party needs its very own Reformation

With CPAC's recent refusal to invite the most popular conservative politician in Christendom, one wonders if the Republicans really do care about winning another national election or if they have decided the role of rabble rousing outsiders is more there cup of tea.

Chris Christie, despite some obvious obstacles, has managed to successfully create a blue print for how a modern conservative leader can stay relevant and popular whilst seeing through real conservative policies.

His reforms in New Jersey to pensions and education are startlingly in there boldness and how he has managed to bring onside supposed arch enemies to his reforms. This cosy chat with The President of The American Federation of Teachers is quite astonishing when you consider the venom and bile of his Town Hall debates with individual teachers.

Whilst many Republicans talk a good game about public sector reform, Christie is one of the few Governors who have actually delivered tangible results whilst not alienating the centre ground. Whereas Rick Scott in Florida was forced to abandon or water down many of his flagship reforms and Scott Walker in Wisconsin faced a recall election. Christie has fought his way through the storm of controversy and found himself on the other side with a number of flagship conservative achievements which all Republicans should be pleased to see.

Yet CPAC and the conservative entertainment complex has decided to make Christie a pariah and all for something that was completely out of his control. Super storm Sandy and Christie's response to the aftermath has redefined his image in the minds of many dogmatic conservatives from hero of the right to poodle of Obama and the liberal media.

The head of CPAC, Al Cardenas, came out after the furore of Christie's non-invite first broke and reasoned Christie's criticism of Republican speaker of the house John Boehner and his insistence on the Sandy Relief Bill being passed in a timely fashion somehow made him unsuitable to attend this year's conference. He was however gracious enough to say the door remained open for next year but only if Christie behaved like a good little conservative should.

Now there is a perfectly reasonable point to be made about how openly Christie embraced Obama immediately after the storm. You can look at how Mayor Bloomberg in New York was much less keen to have Obama tour New York in the immediate aftermath as an example of how Christie could have reacted differently whilst still getting the federal support that was needed.

Even so Super storm Sandy wrecked a level of destruction on New Jersey that no one had seen in their lifetime. The sheer uniqueness of the event meant all normal partisan politics was appropriately put to one side as the people of his state had the right to expect. When you're governor of a state where thousands of people are homeless and without basic amenities, you know the people expect a fierce relief response and if having the President of the United States fly in makes that response a fraction quicker then you're going to take it unquestioningly.

On top of this Christie had the 'gall' to expect the same level of federal aid to rebuild his state as was offered after similar natural disasters like Katrina and in the same time frame. John Boehner and the House GOP then decided to hold up the bill on purely political grounds as they were deep into the fiscal cliff negotiations with the White House. Later many of the House GOP, not from the north east, stated the excessive pork barrel spending in the relief bill was the reason it was held up. Many of these same House members were from southern coastal states who campaigned vigorously for similar federal relief aid in the aftermath of Katrina.

The hypocrisy on show was quite rightly outed by Christie in his famous press conference where he delivered a quite remarkable smack down to John Boehner. This public airing of private disagreements with fellow Republicans whilst boosting his standing in New Jersey obviously created a serious level of bitterness with Washington Republicans.

This justified criticism of the house Republicans also antagonised the conservative entertainment complex which in turn fed its anger at Christie down to grassroots tea party activists. The criticism of Christie's actions on all these three fronts was clearly behind CPAC's decision to not invite him. They were obviously paranoid that his brand of reasonable, problem solving conservatism wouldn't wash well with the hard line conservative ideologists that attend the conference.

A few clear thinking Republicans like Rep. Peter King have tried to downplay the significance of the CPAC snub. Unfortunately the selective hearing of the far right, which now has a stranglehold on the Republican party, just does not pick up these rare voices of sanity. Ideological purity has now trumped the idea of actually winning national elections.

The far right's grip on the selection of Republican candidates, in state and national elections, means these organisations like CPAC have been given more and more undeserved influence by Republican politicians cow towing to their desire for ideologically pure candidates. This is creating a circle of defeat and the squeezing out of all but a few select groups of people. If you're white, rich and Christian then come on in, otherwise you'll have the door slammed in your face by the sheer extremeness of their policy positions on everything from immigration to social issues.

The fact that a Republican like Christie who has managed to garner a 74% approval rating in a blue state like New Jersey is being shunned, shows just how little many conservatives want to actually win a national election. There is a dangerous belief that the only way you can stick to your political beliefs is by staying in opposition. Actually being in power is viewed as a grubby practice where constant compromising means you can never be a true conservative.

Christie has shown this not to be true. His battling reform agenda is conservative to the core and he's even pro life in a state where they haven't had a pro life governor in decades. What more is the guy supposed to do to get the backing of these idiots in the conservative movement. Well actually I know the answer. They want him to go down in flames espousing all the hard right conservative ideology that they advocate, because really they will always be suspicious of any Republican who can win in a Democratic heartland like New Jersey.

Many conservatives have given up on the idea of winning 50 states. They view it as a compromise too far and are happy to just concentrate on a few counties in Ohio and Florida. This narrow minded approach may have worked a decade ago but their supposed firewall of the south has now been breached in successive presidential elections. The loss of Virginia, for example, in 2008 and again in 2012 shows the Republicans have to reach out beyond their core vote if they've any chance of winning another national election. They have to at the very least push back against the Democrats in solid blue states. Lay the ground work for growth in places the Republicans haven't won since the eighties.

The issue still remains if there is the will on the part of moderate reasonable Republicans to fight back against the stupidity that is so prevalent in opinion formers of the conservative movement. Make no mistake if a group do decide to fight back it will be bloody and messy. Talk radio and certain sections of fox news will resist and will attempt to snuff out a significant change of direction before it can gain momentum.

This is where heavy weights like Christie need to front up and lead the transformation of the party. Alternative groups need to be formed to counter the influence of the likes of CPAC and the conservative entertainment complex needs to be pushed to the sidelines. Republicans need to re-engage with the mainstream media in a sensible way. Simply banging on about liberal bias in the media whilst on fox news doesn't achieve anything and only creates an unhealthy defensive attitude in the minds of conservatives.

Whether anything will change before 2016 remains to be seen and it could well be that the nadir of the Republican party has not yet been reached. It took the Conservative Party in Britain three successive election hammerings to start realising they needed to branch out beyond their core vote and even now the calls from inside the party to leave the centre ground are loud and vociferous.

Democrats of course can't believe their luck and are quite happy to camp out in the centre ground and lap up all the key voting demographics. Hillary Clinton will most likely wrap up the Democratic nomination with ease and sail into 2016 with a united, confident, big tent party firmly behind her.

In what shape the Republicans will  meet her is completely down to them and whether they care about giving her a serious contest. If they decide to stick with the same tried and failed policies then I'm guessing they've decided it would be too ungentlemanly to get in the way of the first woman President. That's the only reason I can think of that makes any sense for carrying on the way they are.

One Night in Budapest

 

The place where you can shoot a PKM Machine Gun in the afternoon and sing Aerosmith at a Karaoke Bar at 4am, oh and there's a bit of culture thrown in to.

With the Olympic road blocking behemoth bearing down on us like Boris Johnson's ego, the time may seem right for many people to give London a wide berth for a period of the games. A cheeky long weekend away where Olympic lanes and anti aircraft missiles on residential buildings are considered ludicrous fantasy would appear ideal. Ladies and Gentleman in my one and only attempt at travel journalism I give you my candidate for your consideration, the beaming beauty of Budapest.

If its oceans of culture and beautiful architecture you're seeking and then this city on the Danube has it in spades. The city seems to have been spared too much destruction during the war so there are plenty of 19th century masterpieces to marvel at including St. Stephen's Basilica in the centre of the city.

As ever with old religious buildings you get the opportunity to show how clever you are by attempting to translate the Latin phrases that adorn these buildings, someone may question it but who knows whose really right, it's a dead language after all.

If you want to see the city in all its splendour then a trek up to the Royal Palace on the hill is a must although be warned if you have the fitness levels of an asthmatic sloth like me, then you may be spending too much time trying to actually breathe rather than enjoying the incredible view.

Once you've patted yourself on the back for actually bothering to walk round a museum about the Soviet era and pretending to empathise about how bad it must have been to have one shoe or no curry houses, you can get to the real reason people travel to Eastern Europe, guns and booze.

Yes, I can now testify that firing a pump action shotgun actually really hurts, especially if you have weedy arms and shoulders like me. Don't worry though there will be an arsenal of weaponry to choose from and it won't just be rusting soviet era pieces either. They'll be a smorgasbord of armaments from all the best death dealers in the civilised world, in effect you'll be able to go on a gun tour from tiny James Bond style handguns to indiscriminate assault rifles.

Admittedly the setting for this gun show is a rather menacing old soviet era civic building on the outskirts of town. The grumpy bus driver drops you off outside and simply beckons you through a side door which looks straight out of the film Hostel.

Once you get inside the ominous feeling that this could be the last bit of sunlight you'll ever see doesn't abate as you descend down an endless flight of concrete stairs to a basement in which you are greeted by a prison cell door and a couple of tatty sofa's.

As you sit down, you can hear some faint voices then a noise that can only be described as like a small atomic bomb going off. Silence follows then a gruff squat man opens the heavy door and hands you a clip board, on it is one page of health and safety info and a line for your signature. A British health and safety officer would have a fit, the safety briefing on the gun range was no more detailed.

The strangely Dutch sounding instructor (in reality his role is gun loader) bluntly states there are only two rules, obey his instructions and point down range. I've literally had briefings on how to wear a high visibility jacket last longer.

After you've finished firing off the weapons you get to take the obligatory photos of you attempting to look tough holding an AK. In reality you come off looking like a subpar Anders Brevik wannabe which in the current climate will probably get your door kicked in at 6am by the Anti-Terrorist Branch.

Future indefinite detention aside the whole experience is highly enjoyable and who wouldn't want to fire a PKM Machine Gun Rambo style even if you only have enough ammo for 2 seconds, it's enough believe me.

As with any major Eastern European city there are plenty of places to eat and drink copious amounts of beer and steak at Newcastle prices. The only concern to have is on the way to your chosen house of excess is to make sure the taxi driver doesn't eye up an opportunity to pay for his kids college tuition by charging a fee even a London cabbie would blush at.

This issue neatly sidestepped (or in my case not) you can really enjoy what you all suffered potential DVT for, dirt cheap lager and crazy locals. Yes you may get the occasional pint tasting like it's from a pipe that hasn't been cleaned since Archduke Franz Ferdinand got his comeuppance but overall it'll taste no worse than the water downed version in Weatherspoons.

Many of the bars and clubs have wildly differing areas within them so if you don't feel like looking massively uncomfortable shuffling to European techno you can chill in one of the more relaxed seating areas and just drink it all in.

If you're really lucky and get slightly confused about what bar you're supposed to be heading to you may end up in a karaoke bar where the locals are still belting out the classics, and some bizarre local numbers, at 4 in the morning.

If you've had a good night or even if you haven't, there's no better book end to the night's entertainment than murdering a classic tune in the form of Aerosmith's 'I don't want to miss a thing'. Even if you sound like you've been deaf from birth there will sure to be a local middle aged bespectacled IT consultant on hand to rescue the occasion and bring your night to a glorious finish.

After that the night could potentially take a bad turn when you start chanting 'one more song' at the clearly ready for bed DJ but common sense will definitely prevail when you see the ex cage fighter of a bouncer marching towards you.

Here ends my account of one experience of Budapest, I've clearly missed out loads of other cultural activities like the baths but anyway all you need to do is get on a dirt cheap flight and explore the city for yourself, it's great fun and it beats being stuck in a 2mile traffic jam on the M4.

The Diamond Jubilee - Even the North Koreans Were Cringing by the End

Wow, what a fun packed weekend of festivities that was. We had some boats, in the loose sense of the word, a big Buckingham knees up organised by soon to be Lord our saviour Gary of Barlow and a little service at her local place of worship St Pauls.

If standing around in the cold freezing your googlies off wasn't your bag then you had the pleasure of wall to wall coverage from the Beeb and any other network that couldn't be bothered to string an alternative schedule together.

Come to think of it why any other channel even bothers transmitting during these royal events is beyond me, its ingrained at birth that you must watch a great state occasion on the state broadcaster and if you couldn't give two hoots you just whack on a box set of (Insert current trendy HBO series). Unfortunately for the viewer I think the executives at the BBC understand this all to well hence the decision to turn the Thames Pageant into an extended version of The One Show.

Don't get me wrong I'm a big fan of the Queen, I think she carries out her constitutional duties marvellously and she hasn't put a foot wrong in 60 years. I was even on her side when she was copping all that flack over staying in Balmoral when Diana died. The mass hysteria that erupted was just plain weird and the subsequent anger directed at the Queen was reminiscent of Italy after they get knocked out a major tournament.

Anyway I digress but my point is she's a perfect head of state and if we had a vote tomorrow I'd put a cross next to her without a moment's hesitation because let's be honest anyone mad enough to think they and only them should be the leader of a nation of 60 million people basically disqualifies them self on grounds of hubris and delusions of grandeur. The fact she didn't have a choice in the matter is a plus point in our system of government.

This is a fairly rock solid principle of mine that hasn't altered despite my other political convictions changing from one episode of Question Time to the next. Despite this though I felt the birth pangs of Republicanism building up inside me every time a saw a news bulletin or newspaper lecturing me on how I must stop and marvel at the extraordinary accomplishments of our great leader.

Maybe I haven't fully matured but I still have this teenage urge to resist and fight against anything that I'm told repeatedly is brilliant and therefore I must be thankful for. The people of this country appreciate the value of the Queen, they may love her for different reasons but even ardent Republicans like Billy Bragg aren't afraid to voice their admiration for her.

What we don't need is commentators and journalists ramming the point down our throats and please what the hell was that rag tag armada of dinghies and canoes suppose to encapsulate. If it was meant to engender a mass of patriotic fervour then it spectacularly failed on me. All I was reminded of is how pathetic our Royal Navy must now be, I'm assuming we've sent our only decent ship down to the Falklands to protect a few farmers and a load of penguins from a nonexistent Argentinean threat.

Admittedly it was difficult to make out the different types of vessels through the haze of lashing rain but seriously there are Amazonian tribesman who would laugh at the primitive nature of some of the 'ships' on show. At times it looked like a scrapheap challenge amphibious special, I was half expecting the bbc to cut away to Robert Llewellyn interviewing some 16 stone Cornishman on his home made raft as one of the oil drums keeping him afloat starts to break away.

If the pageant had a touch of the North Korean to it then the giant picture of the Royals during the Silver Jubilee really took the rice cake. I mean that thing was ridiculous, even Kim Jong whatever his name is would blush at the sheer scale of it. It was almost Orwellian in its symbolism and magnitude.

Now I'll admit the gig on Buckingham Palace's driveway had some good moments and I'll never miss a chance to see Macca singing Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da but seriously how is Lenny Henry still getting gigs. I'm assuming he must have been funny once but I'm 25 and have been watching too much television since the mid nineties and have never seen him utter a single humorous line. I laughed harder when Charlie boy called the Queen mummy, even his little quip about the comedians was worth a chuckle. Seriously, Len should make enquiries as to who writes Charles's stuff because otherwise he should stick to advertising low quality motels.

I won't mention anything about the service at St Paul's as I'll be honest I'd given up watching by then along with most of the country I suspect. I'm sure it was very dignified and probably one of the more enjoyable parts of the weekend for the Queen. I do wonder if the Queen actually wanted all this hullabaloo, I always get the feeling she's sitting there working out how much the electricity bill will come to and practicing her interested face for when she has to schmooze backstage with JLS.

Yes the Queen is a great symbol of continuity and stability in an ever changing world but surely there are far more unobtrusive ways to celebrate her longevity. One might say a more understated celebration would have been more British rather than the almost American levels of razzmatazz that were on show.

Why Mitt Romney's flip-flopping may turn out to be a political asset

Throughout Mitt Romney's hard slog towards becoming the Republican nominee one criticism pursued him wherever he went and was equally vociferous on both sides of the political spectrum. The issue of course was over Mitt Romney's propensity to mould his views to fit whatever audience or electorate he was facing, otherwise known as flip-flopping.

Hard line conservatives despaired at Romney's record as Governor of Massachusetts and the resented the way he was suddenly appearing to show very conservative principles on topics like abortion when there were reams of interviews and statements directly contradicting what he was purporting to now believe.

Liberals and much of the mainstream media saw an open goal and a heavy amount of hypocrisy. They also latched on to the fact that it was conservatives who had initially launched the attacks on Romney therefore covering them from accusations of bias. They were simply reporting on the attacks by conservatives and there's nothing the mainstream media loves more than Republicans attacking their own.

It seems conservatives were willing to ignore Ronald Reagan's golden rule, thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican, as they could not stomach this so called Massachusetts moderate becoming the nominee.  Of course even Reagan didn't stick to this principle throughout his career as Gerald Ford would attest.

While Romney's flip-flopping provided plenty of ammunition to the media and his primary opponents it also had the effect of painting Romney as a politician not wedded to any particular political ideology. Voters could see this was a man who assessed the situations and jobs he was in and was able to mould his positions to fashion the best outcomes possible.

A good example of this was the 2006 healthcare legislation he brought in whilst Governor of Massachusetts. At the time it was widely praised across the country by commentators as a model that could be used as a template for a federal system of healthcare insurance. Indeed Obama and his team clearly took notice and incorporated many of its aspects into the healthcare bill that passed through congress in 2009.

This link between the two bills could clearly not have been predicted by Romney when he passed his legislation but it subsequently became a major headache when repealing Obamacare became a central plank of Republican policy. He was repeatedly hammered by his opponents and harangued by the media to explain how he could support his own bill but not the presidents. His answer was simple but in the end effective, just because something works at state level doesn't mean it should be implemented federally.

This is a logical reasoned argument that most people can accept. Whether they agree with his stance on healthcare is another issue but the idea that his position is the height of hypocrisy and that it shows his inherent weakness as a leader just doesn't hold up.

The malleability of his positions can be highlighted as a strength in fact. Washington politics is deeply divided and compromise has become the dirty word of politics, especially within conservative circles. It seems Congress can only hear the shrill voices on the edges of the parties, as its approval rating has been consistently under 20% for the last two years. This shows the electorate does not want more ideology and dogma in Washington but people who will get things done in a sensible pragmatic way even if that means you have adapt long held policy positions.

As Chris Christie has said there is a wide boulevard in between getting all you want and compromising your principles. Romney has shown he understands how to adapt when faced with a hostile legislature and this is one area where Obama has been especially ineffective. There are valid arguments to be made that the Republican Congress has been overly intransigent but a President must lead and he failed spectacularly to do this when he handed over the healthcare bill to Congress.

The number one issue that will decide the election in November is the economy, as it almost always is. The American electorate is not looking for an ideology to follow but just simply a solution to the mess the country's in. Romney, due to his altering views, has allowed an image to grow of a politician with no concrete ideological beliefs and this could prove to be a major plus in the current climate.

Yes Romney has had to pander to the hard right of the Republican party during the height of the primary battle but his folksy and slightly awkward manner didn't make him sound like an extreme fundamentalist such as Rick Santorum. His delivery and mannerisms give the impression that he is from another era and therefore detached from the modern vitriol that surrounds present day Washington.

This perception can become a plus as it taps into that influential emotion, nostalgia . Non ideological voters who long for a time of low unemployment and pre 9/11 sanity will be drawn to this and could provide the key to Romney being able to create a large enough coalition to take him over the top come November.

Afghanistan: It is and always will be a failed state

As the 2014 withdrawal date for American and British combat troops creeps ever closer the rhetoric coming from leading politicians about the great strides that have been made by Afghan forces has increased significantly. In Britain the three major parties have formed a cosy consensus with a steady drip of comments about how well Afghan troops have performed in recent operations and the great leaps forward that have been made in training the Afghan police and army.

Clearly some level of progress has been made but this isn't saying much if you consider they were starting from the bottom. In a sense the only way they could go was up but this still doesn't imply the Afghan state will be able to guarantee security and prosperity once NATO forces leave. In fact even with the current high levels of NATO support, the central government under Hamid Karzai do not hold much influence outside the main urban areas.

Within the countryside, where the majority of the population reside, it is the tribal leaders and councils who govern. In fact the local populace show more loyalty to these tribal leaderships than they do to central government. Even the police struggle to exert influence, preferring to do deals with the local warlords rather than risking conflict by keeping law and order as the central government wants.

This reluctance by the Afghan local branches of government to properly exert its influence in the tribal regions is telling as it shows the true strength and power they really have. The police and army units on the frontline may lack in professionalism and in some cases even courage but essentially it comes down to the fact that they don't feel they are genuinely backed up by the government. This lack of confidence is extremely detrimental to overall health of the state and is unlikely to be resolved any time before 2014.

Most likely the politicians in Washington and London privately accept the futility of the NATO mission, some have even made tentative steps to accept this publicly. Ed Miliband's recent comments on a visit to Afghanistan show that even among the political elite there are serious reservations as to whether the Afghan government will last much beyond 2014. This comment was quickly followed by Miliband declaring his strong support for the 2014 withdrawal plan, which shows how purely political the exit date is and has no bearing on the conditions on the ground.

Some would argue however that NATO should never have gotten involved in nation building and its original mission of defeating Al-Qaeda was completed in early 2002. The subsequent mission creep was born out of the hubris of the time, a belief that America was going to re-shape the world for a new century of dominance.

This was a deeply flawed belief and shows how little politicians at the top had studied their history. It would only take a brief period of research to see how many great powers had tried to tame Afghanistan's various tribes and bring a central order to the country. All failed and suffered great humiliating retreats which scarred the invading nation. One example of this is being explored by Rory Stewart in a new documentary series starting on the BBC.

Nevertheless even people who at the time did understand Afghanistan's brutal history believed advances in technology and modern warfare would allow NATO to be the exception to the rule. For a short period after the initial fall of Kabul there did seem to be hope for a stable Afghanistan. Billions of dollars of aid was poured into the country on regeneration, the problem was much of this did not reach the people who really needed it. The fact remained even though the Taliban had been defeated they had not simply left, they remained living in the same communities they had for generations.

You cannot simply dismiss the Taliban as an evil group who were reviled by every Afghani.  They are as much the people of Afghanistan as anyone else. They have fought invaders of their land since the time of Alexander the Great and will continue to do so long after the last vestiges of NATO have been blown back through the Khyber pass.

The Taliban have not succeeded on their own however, they are a wily bunch who have been willing to join forces with the most unlikely of allies in order to achieve their goals. When the Soviet Union was attempting to impose its will on the country they found a very willing ally in the United States. When the Soviets left and the American support disappeared they found Osama Bin Laden and his terrorist buddies more than willing to fund them financially in return for safe haven.

Both these alliances were friendships of convenience as is the current close relationship they have with elements in the Pakistani intelligence and military communities. This relationship has grown out of the immense amount of paranoia Pakistan directs towards India. Pakistan are willing to accept a brutal, destructive group running Afghanistan just so long as they are their brutal group and not India's.

This attitude by Pakistan shows no sign of abating and if anything the ties are being strengthened the closer we get to the 2014 deadline. Pakistan recognise Hamid Karzai's government will be acutely vulnerable once he is unable to call upon the power of NATO to maintain his governments sphere of influence across the country.

Even if Pakistan could be persuaded that their main security threat is no longer India they still have yet to admit that a relationship exists. The irony is the true threat to the Pakistan state is from internal terrorism being directed from the tribal areas of northern Pakistan and southern Afghanistan. The Taliban may have severed most of their ties with Al-Qaeda but there are still individuals within both groups who share information and at times work together.

There are many more factors that could be listed which would highlight the futility of NATO's mission but fundamentally Afghanistan is a country of disparate tribes and peoples who have for centuries been ordered and cajoled by foreign powers to come together as one unified nation state. The British Empire failed and so did the Soviet Union, at some point NATO will face up this but not before more blood and treasure is expended for a mission that since early 2002 has been fundamentally flawed. If this analysis is correct then all we have exerted for the last ten years has been for nothing and serious questions need to be asked of the British and American governments.

Maybe if only half the amount of energy that has been exhausted on constant inquiries on Iraq could be directed towards Afghanistan then maybe we'll develop a proper understanding of this conflict which will hopefully act as a warning for future generations who might be considering an intervention in this most unforgiving land.